Bitcoin is still heading for consolidation this week. The cost has risen from US $32,000 to US $35,000 and then came to US $31,000. There is not much fluctuation at all. At the same time, the news is quite deserted. From the frequency of Google search and media showing, The topic of Bitcoin has dropped greatly, making this week’s weak word skin-deep unable to stimulate major business volatility. The rationale behind exploring is nothing less than that no brand-new happenings have resulted, and after Musk no longer talks about Bitcoin, The Bitcoin market suddenly lost its topicality, and gradually withdrew from the first-line themes from the countless media, and the market also weakened.
Although the market situation is not good, part of the reason is that speculators’ scrutiny has changed from mainstream monies to some small and medium-sized altcoin markets, especially in DeFi, platform currencies and main chain currencies, where trading institutions can be seen, because of these tournaments. The currency’s small market value, high short-term waverings and good news can bring greater remunerations to merchants with high risk tolerance. Looking at the entire marketplace, it can be found that small and medium-sized currencies have increased more than mainstream currencies this week, such as Compound, Aave, and AXS, which all have remarkable performance.
On the other hand, institutional funds are also focusing on the altcoin business. Last week, GrayScale propelled the LargeCap series of funds. The investment array extends BTC, ETH, ADA and a variety of encrypted assets. This week Dow Jones too propelled BDM and LargeCap indexes. A total of 250 various kinds of encrypted assets are covered, which can provide index tracking stores issued by fund corporations. Both of these two operations typify that the institution’s investment in cryptocurrencies had formally moved from the two mainstream monies of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the more diverse altcoin market.
In the future, institutional legal beings can directly purchase gray-scale multi-fund products to obtain exposure to encrypted resources, and the investment targets are no longer limited to Bitcoin and Ether. It is worth noting that due to the most well-known relationship, the current negative ESG publishes merely exist in Bitcoin, and investment institutions have not called the products of the Ethereum platform as “not environmentally friendly”, so that there will be no ESG problems in Ethereum investment. Coupled with fresh themes, numerous romance gameplays continue to be introduced on the Ethereum platform, such as NFT, DeFi and DAPP plays, which makes this field of growth capacity much broader than Bitcoin.
But back to the broader market, the short orderings on the major futures exchange have increased considerably, suggesting that retail investors’ short-sale sentiment has risen with the tide, choosing to open short-changes and wait for the collapse of Bitcoin, but is Bitcoin really not working? More and more investors in the market are bearish on Bitcoin, believing that Bitcoin may fall back to the level of USD 10,000 before the epidemic.
However, we have different opinions. We believe that Bitcoin will not fall below 30,000 USD in the short term, and we have found from recent bargaining chip movement trends: The data on the Bitcoin chain shows that there are more than 1.86 million BTC trading at a price of 31,000 to 34,000 USD, which is equivalent to 10% of the total trading volume created the largest “range change of hands” since $12,000. This means that 31000 will become a strong support level and a strong pressure level of 34000. It will take a long time to reverse for future breakthroughs and breaks.
At present, 70% of BTC holders are still in a “profitable” state, while Ethereum is nearly 80% of profiters. For long-term investors, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still very high-quality targets, but in this process, most Everyone will lose to “time”.
Therefore, we believe that big players are secretly accumulating bitcoins and are also using short futures orders to hedge risks. We use this to speculate that the short-term rebound will come soon
There are several important news
On July 14, Dow Jones launched an index product covering 250 cryptocurrencies
Which means that cryptocurrencies are rapidly “commoditizing”. In addition to the traditional investment market, the fund market is also preparing to take off. “It is a very obvious indicator. In the future, the investment in cryptocurrency assets will undoubtedly leap into the mainstream. Investors will not only choose traditional stocks, but cryptocurrency products with greater volatility and more yuan will become the choice of more people.
On July 15, the Fed will release a digital currency research report in September
Digital currency finance and payment services are rapidly taking shape in the United States. The Fed authorities have also noticed this trend. They originally said that they were not implementing any CBDC report publishing plan internally. However, the recent USDC payment plan between Visa, Coinbase and Circle I am afraid that the painting has already touched the sensitive nerves of the Fed. Observing from the action of the government, this digital trend is rapidly sweeping the United States.
On July 16, customer demand is strong, PayPal raises the limit of cryptocurrency purchases to US$100,000 per week
After PayPal opened up cryptocurrency purchases this year, its performance has rushed forward. The contribution of a single customer is much higher than that of other payment businesses. According to the latest data released by PayPal, even if the number of active users in the first quarter of 2021 drops by 20%, However, the total payment amount increased by 46%, and operating income increased by 29%, which brought 12 times the net profit growth (GAAP).Digital currency business is currently the next battlefield for American payment and financial companies. As long as companies that entered the market last year have achieved considerable growth in performance, there is no need to say that exchanges. Coinbase’s profit in the first quarter of this year alone exceeded that of the entire year of last year. The cryptocurrency industry has experienced a round of explosive growth in the United States. In the future, cryptocurrencies will play a more important role in the payment field, providing users with faster and lower-cost cross-border transfer and payment services.
Short positions continue to increase, presumably to hedge Bitcoin positions
This week, Bitcoin short orders have increased rapidly in major futures exchanges. Excluding those exchanges where retail transactions are the majority, if you look at the Bitfinex exchange alone, you can find that short orders have grown rapidly from 7,000 BTC to 15,000 BTC, but this is different from the past. However, after the emergence of these short positions, the market did not quickly sell off. Instead, it showed a slowly increasing trend under the slow decline of Bitcoin price. Obviously, the goal of this batch of short orders is not to earn short-term shorts. income.
When we look at the data on the Cryptoquant chain, we understand that the exchange’s bitcoin reserves have increased since April, which means that bitcoin continues to flow into the exchange to sell off. This corresponds to the period when bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $38,000. Then the market consolidates for a month. , Until June began to reverse.
In mid-June, the number of bitcoin reserves on the exchange began to decline in contrast to the rise in May. The price point of the reversal was about 38,000 US dollars, which coincided with the announcement of MicroStrategy’s repurchase of bitcoin. Bitcoin reserves continued to decline and remained at a low water level until this week, implying that funds continued to flow out of the exchange.
Combining the above two points, we can know that investors are accumulating chips, constantly buying bitcoins and then moving away from the exchange. At the same time, they use the exchange’s empty futures orders to hedge their positions, even if the market price drops. A single profit subsidy will not cause too much loss. This cost is equivalent to buying insurance for the Bitcoin position.
Although the current market sentiment is sluggish, Bitcoin’s negatives have been exhausted, including the sale of mines, Musk no longer talks about Bitcoin, and supervision has also come to an end. Judging from the trend that big players are secretly accumulating chips, Bitcoin does not fall below $30,000. Investors have a higher winning rate to establish positions at this time. In the short term, only a piece of good news can be used as a reason to pull up.
BTC analysis:
Basically, the shock has been over two months. Today’s low point is almost the same as the May 19 low point. Many people’s positions are gone. It has indeed reached the goal of large investors to wash out retail investors, forcing you to recognize and pay out. Out of chips.
Technically, BTC has returned to the low of the range. We still think that this position should not be killed anymore. The closer it is to the $30,000 support, the stronger it will be. “The resistance of the bulls will also be more fierce, and it is also the most likely position to produce a strong rebound.” , The big players are secretly accumulating bitcoins, and are also using short futures orders to hedge, we use this to speculate that the short-term rebound will come soon
Therefore, as long as there is no longer a major negative, it is still recommended to use 30,000 US dollars as the support, and the spot bargaining small position layout.
Support 31500 pressure 33500
ETH analysis:
At present, the support of the lower rail of the Bollinger Band has been stepped back, and the downside will not fall sharply. In July, the teacher suggested that the callback please focus on the layout in batches.
Support 1850 pressure 2100
